Cascading events led to 2018 Kilauea volcanic eruption, providing forecast clues

The 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaii in the last 200 years. The eruption was triggered by a relatively small and rapid change in the volcano after a decade-long buildup of pressure in the upper parts of the volcano, according to a study by scientists at the University of Hawaii at Manoa and the U.S. Geological Survey.

The fissure 8 lava fountain and lava channel during the 2018 Kilauea eruption. Photo: Bruce Houghton

Using data from before and during the 2018 eruptions at the summit and flank, the researchers reconstructed geologic events.

"The data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puu Oo eruption site caused widespread pressurization in the volcano, driving magma into the lower flank," said Matthew Patrick, a geologist at the USGS and lead author of the study.

The eruption evolved and its impact expanded as a sequence of cascading events allowed relatively minor changes at Puu Oo to cause major destruction and historic changes across the volcano.

A cascading series of events of this type was not considered the most likely outcome in the weeks prior to the onset of the eruption.

"This form of tunnel vision, which gives less attention to the least likely outcomes, is a bias that can be overcome by considering the broader, longer history of the volcano," said Bruce Houghton, the Hawaii state volcanologist, a geoscientist at UH Manoa, and study co-author. "For Kilauea, this consists of widening the scope to consider the types of behavior seen in the first half of the 20th century and perhaps earlier."

Hawaii absorbed a significant amount of the economic and social cost of the 2018 eruption and likely will do so again as Kilauea and Mauna Loa continue to erupt, suggested Houghton.

Studies like this, which probe the more subtle influences of the behavior of these volcanoes, are targeted at reducing the costs, human and physical, of the next eruptions. (National Science Foundation)

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

Fossils support new hypothesis for origin of hoofed mammals

New research describes a fossil family that illuminates the origin of perissodactyls -- the group of mammals that includes horses, rhinos and tapirs.

Fast-moving gas flowing away from young star’s asteroid belt may be caused by icy comet vaporisation

A unique stage of planetary system evolution has been imaged by astronomers, showing fast-moving carbon monoxide gas flowing away from a star system over 400 light years away, a discovery that provides an opportunity to study how our own solar system developed.

Atmospheric mercury hits ocean depths via dead fish

Fish accumulate mercury in their bodies and when they die the carcasses carry the toxic metal to the depths of the oceans, says a new study.

Silk Road contains genomic resources for improving apples

The apple's domestication history has led to untapped sources of genes.

Geoscientists discover ancestral Puebloans survived on ice melt in New Mexico lava tubes

For more than 10,000 years, the people who lived on the arid landscape of modern-day western New Mexico were renowned for their complex societies (...)

Noise and light pollution affect breeding habits in birds

A new study provides the most comprehensive picture yet of how human noise and light pollution affect birds throughout North America.